An Early All-Star Ballot

In the past, I’ve used this space to name my quarter-season All-Star team. With the actual All-Star ballot now out, I’m tempted to post both a novelty piece about the players enjoying unexpected success through 40-45 games and an actual All-Star ballot, which would incorporate some 2012 results as well as early returns from ’13. I think I’ll do both.

Catcher
Quarter Season: Joe Mauer, Buster Posey
Last Calendar Year: Joe Mauer, Buster Posey

Carlos Santana (.411 wOBA) has actually hit more than Mauer in ’13, but he’s played more first base (nine games) than Mauer as well. We’ll find a place for him. As great as Posey’s been (.309/.416/.567), who knew that Mauer’s been nearly as good, at least with the stick (.336/425/.474)?

First Base
Quarter Season: Chris Davis, Joey Votto
Last Calendar Year: Prince Fielder, Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt was a tough omission in ’13, as he’s hitting .333/.414/.635 with 12 homers and leading the NL in Win Probability Added. Of course, the guys I picked as my NL DH and 1B are third and second, respectively, in WPA, and each has an OBP over .450 (Votto .473, Choo .456), so Goldschmidt had some stiff competition. Davis (.441 wOBA) has probably been the best non-Cabrera hitter in the AL so far this year, but Fielder has quietly hit .307/.421/.542 with 33 homers since this time last year.

Second Base
Quarter Season: Dustin Pedroia, Matt Carpenter
Last Calendar Year: Robinson Cano, Aaron Hill

Carpenter’s split his time between second and third (he played first a lot last year), but I had to put him somewhere in deference to his 1.9 fWAR, which would lead the NL at either position. Hill leads a weak field over the past year, but his .321 average and 23 homers justify his spot.

Cano picked up where he left off last season, earning 8.3 fWAR over the past 365 days, and would have been a reasonable choice for the quarter-season pick as well, but Pedroia’s got him by almost .100 points of OBP (.432 to .337) this year, and, as usual, has been the better fielder and baserunner.

Shortstop
Quarter Season: Jhonny Peralta, Jean Segura
Last Calendar Year: Elvis Andrus, Ian Desmond

With Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins well past their primes and Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes so fragile, there are no superstar shortstops in the game today. Segura may change that soon, as he’s done it all for the Brewers this year (.364, 14 stolen bases, above-average defense). Peralta leads a weak field, but he’s hitting .320 with solid D. Andrus noses out Peralta over the past year by virtue of his advantages with the glove (12.5 FRAA) and his legs (3.1 BRAA, 25 steals), while Desmond has hit 25 homers and stolen 21 bases over the past calendar year.

Third Base
Quarter Season: Miguel Cabrera, David Wright
Last Calendar Year: Miguel Cabrera, Chase Headley

He wasn’t the most valuable player in the AL last year, but Cabrera probably has been this year, despite his horrid defense. Over the past year, he’s hitting .352/.420/.647 with 47 home runs. He takes this crown despite Evan Longoria’s hot start and Adrian Beltre’s sustained greatness. Headley’s got 30 homers, 17 steals, and 10.1 FRAA over the past year.

Left Field
Quarter Season: Mike Trout, Justin Upton
Last Calendar Year: Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun

Trout may not be hitting .300 in 2013, but his all-around game is still off the charts. Similarly, Braun and Gordon are great players with the bat, the glove, and their legs, compiling 7.4 and 6.6 fWAR, respectively, since last May. Upton’s cooled off since hitting almost a homer a day for much of April, but even while striking out over a quarter of the time, he still has a .418 wOBA in 2013.

Center Field
Quarter Season: Adam Jones, Carlos Gomez
Last Calendar Year: Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen

Jones has been mostly great since last April, but Trout was a center fielder last year, so he gets this spot with no debate. Gomez has probably been the most valuable player in the NL so far, on pace for a Trout-esque 10+ fWAR.

Right Field
Quarter Season: Jose Bautista, Bryce Harper
Last Calendar Year: Alex Rios, Bryce Harper

If Rios had played as much right field as center this year, he’d probably deserve both awards, as he’s hit .310 with 34 homers and 26 steals since last May. Much ado has been made about Harper’s start to 2013, but over the past year, he’s been almost a 6-win player, with 31 homers, 18 steals, and excellent defense.

Designated Hitter
Quarter Season: Carlos Santana, Shin-soo Choo
Last Calendar Year: Edwin Encarnacion, Aramis Ramirez

These are not all real DHs, of course, but the players with the best offensive numbers not already filling one of the positions above. E5 has been a beast for Toronto, with 41 homers and a .382 OBP over the last year, while Aramis has quietly hit .330/.387/.600 over the same spell.

Pitchers
Quarter Season (AL): Clay Buchholz, Anibal Sanchez, Felix Hernandez, Yu Darvish, Hisashi Iwakuma, Casey Janssen
Quarter Season (NL): Adam Wainwright, Matt Harvey, Clayton Kershaw, Shelby Miller, Jordan Zimmermann, Jason Grilli
Last Calendar Year (AL): Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Yu Darvish, Hiroki Kuroda, Chris Sale, Junichi Tazawa
Last Calendar Year (NL): Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, Jordan Zimmermann, Cliff Lee, AJ Burnett, Craig Kimbrel

Pitching numbers through eight or nine starts (or 20 relief innings) are more curiosity than information, which is why the names on the last two lines are, for the most part, bigger names than those on the first two. The AL has been an Asian pitcher’s league, with Darvish leading in strikeouts (249), Iwakuma leading in ERA (2.56), and Kuroda leading in RA-9 Wins (7.9). Tazawa’s 2.14 FIP, while no match for Kimbrel’s 1.02, is best among AL relievers.

Hernandez leads all pitchers in fWAR (6.6) over the last year, narrowly edging out Wainwright (6.5). Lee is among the top ten NL pitchers in both ERA (3.26) and FIP (3.17). He’s 10-10.

Rangers, Tigers Look Similar

A year ago, the Rangers and Tigers, then reigning ALCS participants, were something of a study in contrasts. The Tigers were front-loaded with superstar talent, but carried a lot of dead weight at other positions, while the Rangers’ only superstar was the fading Josh Hamilton, but their depth on offense and defense made them competitive night in and night out. Texas won more games, but lost its division and the Wild Card play-in game, while Detroit took the back door into the playoffs will 88 wins.

Fangraphs tells us that Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Austin Jackson were each worth at least 5 WAR in 2012, while Prince Fielder added 4.9 and Max Scherzer added another 4.5. On the other end, regulars Brennan Boesch, Delmon Young, Don Kelly, and Ramon Santiago all provided sub-replacement value, and the bullpen was a tightrope act with Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit struggling much of the year. In contrast, no Ranger other than Adrian Beltre was worth as many as 5 WAR, but every regular outside the rotting corpse of Michael Young provided positive value. The stars carried the day, as Detroit reached the World Series, only to lose to what was probably a lesser San Francisco team, much like Texas had done two years earlier.

After an active winter for both clubs, most of the detritus is gone. Both Youngs are playing for the Phillies, Boesch is in New York, and Hamilton is in Orange County, swinging and missing at pitches in LA. But both teams are playing well, coming into this weekend’s head-to-head series with a combined record of 48-30. As the Tigers have plugged holes and the Rangers have rebranded themselves without Hamilton, they’ve started to look more like each other. Let’s take a look at them, position-by-position.

3rd base
We start at third because both teams keep their best all-around player there. Cabrera is simply a beast at the plate, hitting .376/.447/.606 over the first quarter of this season after winning the triple crown last year with his worst wOBA (.417) since 2009. Even with a frying pan for a glove, he’s been among the most valuable players in baseball practically every year of his career, topping 5 WAR seven times in the last eight years. Beltre has quietly built a Hall of Fame resume, excelling with the stick (134 or better wOBA the last three years) and the glove (since 2004, no player in baseball has more fielding runs above average than Beltre’s 109).
Edge: Tigers

1st base
With the marquee matchup out of the way, we’ll dispense with the most lopsided one. Fielder just keeps raking, heading toward a seventh straight season of 30 or more homers, while Mitch Moreland is hoping to top 20 homers (and one WAR) for the first time in 2013.
Edge: Tigers

2nd base
The Rangers get most of Moreland’s slack back here, as Ian Kinsler is solid at the plate, in the field, and on the basepaths, while Omar Infante is a below-average hitter whose glove keeps him in the lineup.
Edge: Rangers

Shortstop
Here’s another spot where both teams have a solid player. Texas’s Elvis Andrus has topped two WAR every year of his career without ever being a league-average hitter, as his plate discipline (walks in 8.2% of career PAs), speed (133 steals in 4+ seasons), and defense (he’s averaged over 8 FRAA throughout his career) make him quite valuable. Meanwhile, Johnny “sic” Peralta provides similar value with more power (20 homers four times), similar patience, no speed, and defense that’s occasionally graded as phenomenal and occasionally terrible.
Edge: Rangers, barely

Catcher
Another interesting one. Alex Avila was one of the game’s best catchers in 2011, but took a step back last year and has been miserable at the plate (.185/.264/.315) in ’13. Meanwhile, AJ Pierzynski was one of the league’s best catchers, at least offensively, in 2012, but has reverted in ’13 to the average player he’s been most of his career. The Edge here is more a tribute to Pierzynski’s backup, Geovany Soto, and his superiority to Brayan Pena of Detroit.
Edge: Rangers, barely

Outfield
Ok, it may seem ridiculous to bunch all three outfield spots into one, but one of the main reasons these teams strike me as similar is that so much of their value comes from their infields. The Rangers’ outfield is typically manned by David Murphy, Craig Gentry, and Nelson Cruz, with Leonys Martin filling in the gaps. Each is capable of hitting at The Ballpark, and Gentry can catch the ball, but none is a player of Beltre’s, or even Andrus’s caliber. Detroit runs out Andy Dirks, Austin Jackson, and Torii Hunter, with Matt Tuiasasopo in reserve. Jackson is probably the best player of the eight in this paragraph, but his 20% strikeout rate in 2013 would actually be the best of his big league career. Hunter seemed to revive his career at the plate and in the field in 2012, and is hitting over .300 again in ’13, but he’ll be 38 this summer and his plate discipline and isolated power seem to be moving in the wrong direction.
Edge: Tigers

Ace Starter
I’ll set the top guys apart from the rest, because even though both teams have deep rotations, they sport probably the two best pitchers in the American League. Since Yu Darvish entered the league last year, only Verlander (8.9) and Felix Hernandez (8.1) have been worth more than his 6.8 fWAR. Darvish’s Rangers won the opener of this series against Verlander’s Tigers, and Yu’s league-leading 12.6 K/9 suggest that he may be poised to assume Verlander’s throne.
Edge: Tigers

Rest of Rotation
Texas might have contended in this category had they not lost Matt Harrison for the season. Derek Holland (2.93 ERA, 2.35 FIP) has been great this year, and Alexi Ogando (3.08 ERA) shows promise, but perhaps the greatest strength of this team is in its pitching depth, with Nick Tepesch and Justin Grimm acquitting themselves well for rookies forced into action in the AL’s most extreme launching pad. Detroit has the edge in the 2, 3, and 4 spots, with Anibal Sanchez pitching better than Verlander so far in practically every facet of the game (2.05 ERA, 1.45 FIP), Max Scherzer striking out almost six for every walk, and Doug Fister having given up just one homer and eight walks in eight starts. Drew Smyly may be a better option than Rick Porcello in the number five spot, but he’s pitched exclusively in relief so far.
Edge: Tigers

Bullpen
Detroit’s bullpen has been surprisingly solid this year. Smyly hasn’t allowed a homer in 24 2/3 innings pitched, and Al Alburquerque is striking out almost half the batters he faces. The shaky Jose Valverde is back in the closer’s role, and depth may be a question, but as a unit, they’ve struck out over 10 batters per nine, leading all big league bullpens, while the Rangers are next-to-last in the AL in that metric. While the Rangers’ pen has been a strength in years past, and is still anchored by the steady Joe Nathan, it’s relying on names like Robbie Ross and Tanner Scheppers to get leads to Nathan this year.
Edge: Tigers

Add it all up and you’ve got two very similar teams. Detroit still has more stars, of course, but with Darvish and Beltre not far behind Verlander and Cabrera, the Rangers should be well-represented in Queens this July too. And while Texas has players like Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt providing depth, Detroit has capable players like Infante and Tuiasasopo filling roles played by sub-replacement-level guys last year.

With all due respect to Cleveland and the teams at the top of the AL East, Texas and Detroit are probably the two best teams in the AL this year. And neither will be a pushover when October comes.

Jackie’s Day

April 15 is Jackie Robinson Day. Today, we celebrate equality, bravery, and fraternity. 4/15/13 does not weaken 4/15/47.

2013 Red Sox preview

Here’s one I wrote for The Forecaster:

Sun shines cordially on the brim of your cap, a welcome respite from the biting cold in the nearby shade. Meticulously manicured grass sparkles proudly, unaware that the last patch of snow is clinging for its life in your yard back home. Familiar songs blare from the loudspeaker as grown men stretch and toss on the field below. April has come to rescue us from another dismal winter and baseball makes spring’s arrival official. There’s no better time to be alive than the beginning of baseball season.

Unless, of course, you’re a Red Sox fan.

It’s been an ugly couple of years in New England. In 2011, winter came early, as the Red Sox lost 20 of their last 27 games after starting 83-52 and looking like a solid bet to win another World Series. In 2012, summer never came, as Boston started 1-5, sputtered to a .500 record at the All-Star break, then fell apart and shipped off two of their prize acquisitions from the 2011 offseason.

Rather than retooling with another cadre of elite free agents or rebuilding with low-cost talent, the Red Sox took a rather unsettling middle road in the offseason. They brought in Mike Napoli despite a harrowing medical report that completely reshaped his contract. They signed Shane Victorino, perhaps hoping he can duplicate Cody Ross’s 2011 performance for the next three years despite signs that he’s slowing down. They added veteran starter Ryan Dempster, who’s had a handful of great years in the National League, but struggled in a brief stint with the Rangers last summer. They added relievers Joel Hanrahan and Koji Uehara, who should be upgrades, but neither will pitch more than 75 innings in 2013. And Johnny Gomes is on the team for some reason.

Throw in a David Ross here and a Stephen Drew there and this is not a bad team, but it’s not the Manny-Ortiz-Pedro juggernaut we’ve become accustomed to in Boston. The pitching is still thin, with Jon Lester regressing at an alarming rate, Clay Buchholz never having pitched 200 innings or struck out 130 batters in a season and the mere thought of John Lackey on the mound more terrifying in Massachusetts than the prospect of a Sarah Palin presidency.

Furthermore, the American League East has been a gauntlet for a decade and with the Orioles winning 93 games last year and the Blue Jays claiming available talent over the winter like Bobby Jenks claiming hors d’ouvres at the postgame buffet, the Red Sox seem far more likely to finish last than first in 2013.

But are the chances of a division title really that bleak?

The Yankees listen to Lawrence Welk in the clubhouse before games. Most Yankees spent this offseason wagging fingers and yelling at kids to stay off their lawns. Some Yankees even remember when Clint Eastwood’s diaper wasn’t visible through his pants. Even with C.C. Sabathia and Robinson Cano, can they hold up for 162 games?

The Orioles won a lot of games last year, but they only had two players worth as many as three Wins Above Replacement (per fangraphs). For reference, the Rangers, who won the same number of games, had six. No pitcher on the 2012 Orioles has a track record of Major League success, yet they made no moves to strengthen the staff, or for that matter, the lineup, which batted just .247 last season and was below average by just about any metric.

The Rays have one of the game’s best rotations, but their starting first baseman and designated hitter early this season are James Loney and Shelley Duncan, who might have been the neighbors on “All in the Family.” If Evan Longoria struggles to stay on the field, as he has in recent years, this could be a truly impotent lineup.

The Blue Jays are the favorites to win the division. With Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera setting the table, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion providing clout in the middle of the order, and four aces in the rotation, Toronto is a popular pick to win the World Series. But R.A. Dickey has never pitched well in the American League, Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow are more familiar with the trainer’s room than the pitcher’s mound and Mark Buehrle gave up 26 homers in the National League East last year. Furthermore, the bottom of the lineup isn’t as strong as Boston’s, at least as long as Adam Lind is wasting at-bats like reality shows taking primetime TV spots.

Boston’s lineup might not be the best in the division this year, but as long as all the Yankees you’ve heard of are on the disabled list, it’s not far behind Toronto for second. The bullpen doesn’t have a Mariano Rivera, but it should be the best in Boston in years. And the rotation- well, it could be bad, but who’s to say it can’t be good? Lester is still just 29, looked solid this spring, and was a legitimate number one starter as recently as 2010. Buchholz pitched well down the stretch last year and has a career ERA under four. Dempster has over 550 strikeouts over the last three seasons, and Felix Doubront struck out 167 in 161 innings as a rookie last year. It’s even possible that Lackey is healthy for the first time in a Red Sox uniform and could pitch more like the ace he was from 2005 to 2007 than the joker he’s been since 2010.

And perhaps best of all, the bumbling reign of Bobby Valentine is over. Former Sox pitching coach John Farrell has the same luxury FDR had in succeeding Hoover: things can only go up from here.

On paper, this Red Sox team has something like 85-win talent. It’s easy to see the pitching falling apart, Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury getting traded midseason and another sub-70-win finish. But it’s also possible that Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia are two of the best players in baseball again, as they were in 2011, that a stacked bullpen holds leads turned over by an adequate rotation, that Jackie Bradley, Jr. continues to electrify fans throughout his rookie season and that no other team in the AL East has a great year.

Red Sox fans who came of age in the current millennium are accustomed to expecting more than a sliver of a chance at the division if everything breaks right. But maybe this is the way baseball is supposed to be. A team with a few stars and a lot of decent role players faces an uphill battle. This is what baseball is like most years in Chicago and Cleveland and Milwaukee and Seattle. Fans start with hope, catch a few breaks and hit a few snags along the way, and more often than not, start dreaming of next year by midsummer.

But if the games still count when the shade is a welcome break from the sun, when the grass, no matter how meticulously manicured, shows evidence of cleats chasing fly balls in the gap, when snow is as distant a memory as Ted Williams’s swing or Cy Young’s fastball, it feels not like a birthright, but like a miracle.

What We Can Learn From Fangraphs in April

Fangraphs tells us that the most valuable player in baseball this season has been Todd Frazier. Frazier only has half of Justin Upton’s six home runs, but a week’s worth of superior fielding and baserunning puts him on top.

The most valuable pitcher so far has been Clayton Kershaw. 0.00 ERA. 1.31 FIP. 16 K in 16 IP. They’re probably right about that one.

Carlos Santana and Yu Darvish lead the AL in WAR for position players and pitchers, respectively. Seems fair.

None of this means much. But Notgraphs’ Mississippi Matt Smith did hit us yesterday with the greatest thing in the history of the internet.

Ranking World Series Contenders

Rather than writing my standard comprehensive preview (I suppose I’m a little late), I thought I’d take a different tact in predicting this year’s baseball season. Following are all 30 MLB teams, ranked in order of increasing likelihood that they win the 2013 World Series.

30. Houston Astros. Tough break moving to the AL West. If they were still in the NL Central, I’d probably rank them… well… last.

29. Florida Marlins. Maybe if Giancarlo Stanton goes all Mike Trout this year… they won’t finish last.

28. Minnesota Twins. It helps playing in the AL Central, but this team has no pitching. Not much hitting either.

27. San Diego Padres. I thought the Padres were a sleeper last year, with Chase Headley and Cameron Maybin due for big seasons. I was right about Headley, less right about Maybin, and way off about the pitching. When Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard are your top two starters, you’re not going to succeed in any park.

26. New York Mets. The Mets might be better than a few teams ahead of them, particularly of Jon Niese and Ike Davis take steps forward and David Wright repeats his 2012, but they’re not going to beat the Nationals and Braves.

25. Colorado Rockies. No Rockies pitcher threw as many as 115 innings last year. They’ll return to a standard five-man rotation this year, but that doesn’t mean they’ll prevent runs. Troy Tulowitzki might be the best player in the game. I wonder if he’s regretting signing with this team throughout and beyond his prime.

24. Seattle Mariners. Michael Morse, Jesus Montero, and Kendrys Morales might hit some home runs with the fences moved in, and King Felix can pitch in any environment, but a reconfigured field won’t make a great team out of this roster.

23. Cleveland Indians. They picked up a lot of veteran talent in the offseason, but Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds don’t make you a great team, especially when Justin Masterson is your best starter.

22. Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates keep making moves toward respectability, but they might still be a last-place team. Even if Andrew McCutchen follows through on his MVP promise from last year and Wandy Rodriguez pitches like an ace, I don’t see a .500 record in their near future.

21. Chicago Cubs. The Cubs lost 101 games last year, but are they really that bad? Anthony Rizzo quietly created 16 runs above average last year and could break out this year. Starlin Castro seems ready to hit .320. Alfonso Soriano’s contract masks the fact that he’s been productive of late, earning 3.6 fWAR last year. And a rotation headed by Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, and Matt Garza doesn’t feel like a last place rotation.

20. Milwaukee Brewers. Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez should keep on hitting, but will that be enough? They finished over .500 last year with a solid year from Jonathan Lucroy and a surprising campaign from Norichika Aoki. They added Kyle Lohse, but subtracted even more by signing Yuniesky Betancourt. I don’t see them improving.

19. Baltimore Orioles. Still not buying it. Even if Chris Davis is for real and Matt Wieters really breaks out this year, Adam Jones has a half season of great baseball on his resume and Brian Roberts is 35 and four years removed from his last 2-win season. This team will give at-bats to Nate McLouth and fielding chances to Nolan Reimold. Their best pitcher is Jason Hammel and their bullpen isn’t going to lock down 90 percent of their one-run games this year. They’re not terrible, but I don’t think they’re a .500 team in the AL East.

18. Kansas City Royals. After so many years of losing, Kansas City’s bumbling front office may have sold the future, shipping Wil Myers and other prospects to Tampa for James Shields and Wade Davis. But if you squint just the right way at the 2013 roster, you might see something there. Alex Gordon has been worth 12.4 fWAR over the last two seasons. Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler can hit, and Alcides Escobar and Salvador Perez are two of the best defensive players in the game. The rotation isn’t great, but Shields, Davis, and Jeremy Guthrie can win some games in the AL Central, can’t they?

17. Philadelphia Phillies. This team seems to have completely lost its ability to score runs, with its entire infield over 34 (and one of them Michael Young). As the offense has declined in recent years, the saving grace has been the continued excellence of the pitching. While Cole Hamels has become the team’s ace and Cliff Lee is still excellent, Roy Halladay had a 4.49 ERA last year, and after a terrible spring, gave up five runs in three and a third innings in his first start this year. Mike Adams joins Jonathan Papelbon in the bullpen, but Charlie Manuel could find a way to lose close games with Kimbrel and Rivera in his pen.

16. Oakland A’s. The A’s are loaded with just-good-enough-for-the-Coliseum pitchers, led by Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone. But these guys have to pitch on the road too, and there aren’t any Verlanders or Hernandezes around. Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, and especially Brandon Moss might struggle to replicate their 2012 offensive numbers. Chris Young, Jed Lowrie, and John Jaso might all be improvements, but there’s a lot of regression to make up for. This team could be better than average again, but I don’t see them finishing ahead of Texas and California again.

15. Chicago White Sox. Meh. Chris Sale will be awesome again, but will Jake Peavy? Does Paul Konerko have anything left? Will Adam Dunn’s 30 homers justify his 200 strikeouts? This is a thoroughly average team. They’re ahead of the A’s and Phillies here only because there’s only one team to beat in their division.

14. Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks quietly assembled a good rotation over the past few years, led by Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Wade Miley, and Trevor Cahill. Justin Upton is gone, but Miguel Montero, Martin Prado, and Gerrardo Parra should all be three-win players this year on a team that could contend if the two NL West teams above them are hit by injuries.

13. Boston Red Sox. This team has the best chance to lose 90 games of anyone in the top half, but they also have the talent to win 90. A lot rides on the arms of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Ryan Dempster, as we can be reasonably sure this team will be among the better offensive teams in the league. If the rotation is even passable, Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey, Koji Uehara, and Junichi Tazawa should hold a lot of leads in the late innings.

12. New York Yankees. This team looks positively moribund right now, and it’s possible that they’ll delight 80 percent of the world by losing 85 games, but Robinson Cano was the second best player in the AL last year and the pitching is solid. If Hiroki Kuroda repeats his 2012, Andy Pettitte continues to pitch like a living being, and David Robertson reverts to 2011 form, this might be the best overall pitching staff in the AL. If Granderson and Teixeira come back healthy and Brett Gardiner assumes his rightful spot in center field, this team could win enough games in the summer to make a run.

11. St. Louis Cardinals. Never count out the Cardinals. Last year, Allen Craig and Yadier Molina joined Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday as forces in the middle of the lineup, and I don’t see either of them going away. The pitching isn’t great after Adam Wainwright, but Jaime Garcia and Lance Lynn are serviceable, particularly given the run support they project to get, and it seems like every pitcher wearing a Cardinals uniform for the first time defies expectations.

10. Tampa Bay Rays. I don’t know what to make of this team. David Price is almost as good as his reputation, Matt Moore could become a #1 starter this year, Jeremy Hellickson keeps defying his FIP, and the team has enough rotation depth to withstand an injury or two. But will they hit? Beyond Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist, the lineup is full of question marks, with James Loney and Shelley Duncan playing traditional power positions. And with class acts like Luke Scott and Yunel Escobar in the fold, will the clubhouse chemistry match that of the great Rays teams from a few years ago?

9. Toronto Blue Jays. The trendy pick to win it all had a marvelous offseason, pickpocketing the NL East bottom feeders by nabbing Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and RA Dickey, and Jose Reyes. The latter three and Brandon Morrow could strike out a lot of guys (or just limit walks, in Buehrle’s case), but none is a guarantee. Dickey’s never pitched well in the NL, Buehrle is 34 and has seen his FIP rise each of the last two seasons, and Johnson and Morrow have long injury histories. Edwin Encarnacion could crush the ball again or regress to pre-2012 form, and Jose Bautista and Reyes need to stay healthy as well if the Jays are going to win the East.

8. Los Angeles Angels. A lineup with Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton is imposing, and those three are the primary reason I rank the Angels this high. But Hamilton’s strikeout rate has been on the rise for three years, climbing over 25% last year. Pujols is still imposing in the batter’s box, but his wOBAs since 2008 have been .459, .447. .419, .384, and .360. What’s next in that sequence? Trout may be the best player in baseball again this year and still be worth three fewer wins than he was worth in 2012. Furthermore, Greinke is gone, CJ Wilson walked over four hitters per nine last year, and Jered Weaver’s strikeout rate has dipped by almost three batters per nine over the last two seasons. There’s a ton of talent here, but a lot of risk too.

7. Los Angeles Dodgers. A couple hundred million dollars can buy a lot of washed-up detritus, but it can also pitch Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke twice every five days. If Adrian Gonzalez hits like it’s 2009, Matt Kemp plays like it’s 2011, and Hyun-Jin Ryu is the real deal, this is the best team in the National League West. If Greinke gets hurt, Josh Beckett pitches like it’s 2012, and Don Mattingly saves Kenley Jansen for three-run leads in the ninth, this might be a .500 team.

6. San Francisco Giants. I’m not sold on the Giants, who made no real moves to improve their team in the offseason. But I’ve learned not to doubt them. Matt Cain gets outs, FIP be damned. If Madison Bumgarner has the season this year I expected him to have last year, it won’t matter much if Tim Lincecum is done. Buster Posey has been among the best players in baseball (and won a championship) in both of his healthy seasons, and Kung Fu Panda and Angel Pagan are two-way stars. Pence is bad, Scutaro is old, and I still don’t believe in Vogelsong, but if this team can scrape together enough wins to get to October, why can’t they win three out of four titles?

5. Atlanta Braves. There’s a good chance the Braves will have to use the Wild Card to get to the Series, but they’re a dangerous playoff team. There are a few question marks in the rotation, but Tim Hudson is steady and Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor offer a lot of upside. Jayson Heyward and the Upton brothers (ok, at least Justin) will rake in the outfield. And Craig Kimbrel might strike out every batter he faces this year, which is a plus in October.

4. Texas Rangers. I tried not to be influenced by early season results, but I might have been here. Lance Berkman should replace most of Josh Hamilton’s production, AJ Pierzynski won’t be a huge drop-off from Mike Napoli, and the rotation is as strong as ever, particularly if Yu Darvish is a Cy Young contender and Alexi Ogando takes a step forward. Will this be the season they finally finish off a lesser National League team?

3. Cincinnati Reds. They don’t get to play the Astros 18 times a year anymore, but aside from St. Louis, there’s not much competition in the NL Central. Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, and Homer Bailey emerged as a strong rotation last year, and Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips are a solid heart of the order. Aroldis Chapman will add value in whatever role he plays, and if Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier build on excellent rookie seasons, this team could be dangerous.

2. Washington Nationals. This team is loaded. Dan Haren joins the Strasburg/Gonzalez/Zimmermann triumvirate in the rotation. Rafael Soriano joins Storen/Clippard/Stammen in the bullpen. Bryce Harper could be the best ouftielder in the NL and the Espinosa/Desmond/Zimmerman infield can field and hit.

1. Detroit Tigers. Does this mean I think the Tigers are the best team in baseball? Not necessarily. They still have some holes in their lineup, and I’m not impressed with their bullpen. It means that they’re the most likely team to make the playoffs, as they stand out from their division more than any other team. And as we’ve seen the last several years, winning in the playoffs takes a little talent, a little luck, and a lot of good timing. The Tigers have perhaps the best four-man rotation in baseball (Verlander/Scherzer/Fister/Sanchez), a very good top of the order (Jackson/Hunter/Cabrera/Fielder/Martinez), and an excellent chance to have a pulse come October.

As a bonus, here are the most likely players to win the postseason awards:

NL Cy Young:
5. Cliff Lee
4. Zack Greinke
3. Cole Hamels
2. Clayton Kershaw
1. Stephen Strasburg

AL Cy Young:
5. David Price
4. Chris Sale
3. Felix Hernandez
2. Yu Darvish
1. Justin Verlander

NL MVP:
10. Yadier Molina
9. Justin Upton
8. Ryan Braun
7. Troy Tulowitzki
6. Giancarlo Stanton
5. Buster Posey
4. Andrew McCutchen
3. Jayson Heyward
2. Bryce Harper
1. Joey Votto

AL MVP:
10. Jose Reyes
9. Matt Wieters
8. Yoenis Cespedes
7. Jose Bautista
6. Dustin Pedroia
5. Adrian Beltre
4. Robinson Cano
3. Miguel Cabrera
2. Evan Longoria
1. Mike Trout

Opening Day Starters

Here’s one I just posted to High Heat Stats.

Throughout the winter months, High Heat Stats, like Replacement Level, has been primarily devoted to history. We’ve dissected Hall of Fame cases, debated the relative merits of Circle of Greats candidates, and mulled over the value of the stats we use to measure value. With meaningful baseball on the docket for tomorrow (or today, as I’m posting this after midnight), let’s get back to the present.

Thirty men will take the mound in their teams’ first tilts of 2013, each representing said team’s greatest hope. Someday we’ll dissect the Hall cases of eight to twelve of these guys, making sure to properly adjust for parks and eras and defenses. But tomorrow is not about objective analysis and advanced metrics- it’s about baseball. Let’s celebrate by slicing and dicing the 30 opening day starters by their rankings in a few categories, some more meaningful than others.

Best ERA, 2012

1. Clayton Kershaw, 2.53
2. David Price, 2.56
3. Brett Anderson, 2.57
30. Justin Masterson, 4.93

Perhaps not the three most pitcher-friendly ballparks, but…

Best ERA, career

1. Brett Anderson, 2.72
2. Clayton Kershaw, 2.79
3. Stephen Strasburg, 2.82
30. Jason Hammel, 4.78

Which of these guys pitched in Colorado for a while? And how many of them have thrown 1,000 career innings?

Best FIP, 2012

1. Brett Anderson, 2.72
2. Stephen Strasburg, 2.82
3. Felix Hernandez, 2.84
30. Jhoulys Chacin, 5.15

Interesting that both Anderson’s and Strasburg’s 2012 FIPs equaled their career ERAs.

Best FIP, career

1. Stephen Strasburg, 2.47
2. Clayton Kershaw, 3.01
3. Chris Sale, 3.19
30. Edinson Volquez, 4.39

This Strasburg guy is pretty good. Wonder why I don’t see his name on last year’s postseason roster.

Most innings pitched, 2012

1. Justin Verlander, 238 1/3
2. R.A. Dickey, 233 2/3
3. Felix Hernandez, 232
30. Brett Anderson, 35

First time we’ve seen any of the three names at the top of this list. I have a feeling we’ll see them again.

Most innings pitched, career

1. Tim Hudson, 2,682 1/3
2. C.C. Sabathia, 2,546 1/3
3. A.J. Burnett, 2,162 2/
30. Stephen Strasburg, 251 1/3

Tim Hudson is the longest-tenured ace on any staff. I feel old.

Best strikeout to walk ratio, 2012

1. C.C. Sabathia, 4.48
2. R.A. Dickey, 4.26
3. Cole Hamels, 4.15
30. Jhoulys Chacin, 1.41

What’s more surprising- that a knuckleballer is second in this category, or that the top two both go by initials? S.J. Strasburg and F.A. Hernandez were fourth and fifth in this category, respectively.

Best strikeout to walk ratio, career

Stephen Strasburg, 4.67
Cole Hamels, 3.80
James Shields, 3.68
30. Edinson Volquez, 1.76

You know who’s good at this category? The Phillies.

Fewest home runs allowed per nine innings, 2012

Brett Anderson, 0.26
Felix Hernandez, 0.54
Tim Hudson, 0.60
30. Jhoulys Chacin, 1.30

Lessons learned from this list, the other component of FIP: sample size matters. So do ballparks.

Fewest home runs allowed per nine innings, career

1. Clayton Kershaw, 0.59
2. Adam Wainwright, 0.66
3. Tim Hudson, 0.70
30. Bud Norris, 1.18

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2013 Houston Astros. Might want to keep Bud out of Arlington.

Highest ground ball percentage, 2012

1. Brett Anderson, 54.0%
2. A.J. Burnett, 56.9%
3. Justin Masterson, 55.7%
30. Jered Weaver, 36.0%

Ground balls don’t turn into home runs very often, but they do become hits. Masterson can attest to that.

Highest ground ball percentage, career

1. Tim Hudson, 58.7%
2. Justin Masterson, 56.0%
3. Felix Hernandez, 54.5%
30. Jered Weaver, 33.5%

Probably best for the Rangers and Yankees to steer clear of Weaver next time he’s a free agent.

Best ERA+, 2012

1. Justin Verlander, 160
2. Brett Anderson, 156
3. Johnny Cueto, 152
30. Justin Masterson, 79

Trying to keep this trivial, but I’ll throw in a few park-adjusted numbers, just to remind us all how fortunate we are to get to watch Justin Verlander.

Best ERA+, career

1. Chris Sale, 150
2. Clayton Kershaw, 138
3. Stephen Strasburg, 135
30. Bud Norris, 89

Those three guys are young, but none of them has ever been anything but dominant at the Major League level.

Most WAR, per fangraphs, 2012

1. Justin Verlander, 7.0
2. Felix Hernandez, 5.9
3. Clayton Kershaw, 5.4
30. Jhoulys Chacin. 0.5

This exercise wasn’t about listing the best active pitchers in baseball, but this list is not a bad start.

Most WAR, per fangraphs, career

1. C.C. Sabathia, 58.7
2. Tim Hudson, 46.8
3. Justin Verlander, 38.7
30. Jeff Samardzija, 3.2

…and the guy at the top of the list is younger than I am.

Most WAR, per baseball-reference, 2012

1. Justin Verlander, 7.7
2. David Price, 6.9
3. Clayton Kershaw, 6.2
30. Justin Masterson, 0.3

B-r was more impressed with Price’s .285 BABiP and 81.1% strand rate than fangraphs was.

Most WAR, per baseball-reference, career

1. Tim Hudson, 54.4
2. C.C. Sabathia, 54.1
3. Justin Verlander, 36.0
30. Jeff Samardzija, 2.0

Their replacement levels are unified; their assessments of Tim Hudson are not.

Happy baseball season, everyone!