Everyone’s World Series prediction, the Red Sox against the Phillies, comes to life this week when the teams meet for a three-game set. Naturally, that means every sports media outlet is required to ratchet up to hype factor, telling us who will win each game and why, based on matchups and trends.
In this or any baseball series, the only thing we know is that we know nothing. The nature of the pitcher-hitter matchup is such that the pitcher will be successful 55-75 percent of the time, regardless of the players in question. Once a ball is in play, there’s roughly a 70% chance it will become an out, regardless of who hit it and who’s trying to field it.
Based on this knowledge, my predictions for tonight’s highly coveted showdown between Cliff Lee and Josh Beckett:
-Lee will strike out more batters than he walks.
-at least one of the Red Sox’s four offensive stars (Ellsbury/Pedroia/Gonzalez/Youlilis) will reach base
-the game will be decided by fewer than six runs
-one of these four predictions will be wrong