April 15th MVPs

The following are my picks for each league’s MVP and Cy Young award winner if the season ended today. MVP stats shown are batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage. Cy Young stats are ERA/strikeouts/walks.

NL MVP
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies (.364/.491/.909)
Tulowitzki may be here to stay after another homer, single, and walk yesterday. Just for fun, if Tulowitzki kept up this pace for the whole year, he would hit 95 home runs, drive in 189, score 135, and finish with a 1.400 OPS, a feat which has been accomplished exactly once in major league history, by Barry Bonds in 2004. Apologies to Miguel Montero, Matt Kemp, and Joey Votto.

AL MVP
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees (.412/.512/.882)
Yeah, this one hurts me as much as it hurts you (probably more), but after two doubles in New York’s business-as-usual five run comeback last night, ARod leads the AL in slugging and is second to Bobby Abreu in OBP. Apologies to Yunel Escobar, Jose Bautista, and Sam Fuld.

NL Cy Young
Roy Halladay, Phillies (1.23/22 K/3 BB)
It’s tempting to put Cliff Lee and his 26/2 K/BB ratio here, but his tough-luck 4.91 ERA kind of spoils the party. Halladay’s ratio is not much worse at 22/3, and he’s turned a similar WHIP (.93 to Lee’s .98) into a 1.23 ERA. Apologies to Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, and Josh Johnson.

AL Cy Young
Dan Haren, Angels (0.73/21 K/2 BB)
Not much to say here, except that we’ve reached a point in April where the four current award leaders are among the actual frontrunners for the end of season awards. Apologies to Jered Weaver, Alexi Ogando, and Matt Harrison.

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This entry was posted in Angels, Phillies, Postseason Awards, Rockies, Yankees. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to April 15th MVPs

  1. Nick says:

    Don’t worry, there’s still much of the season left for you to flip between Harry Leroy and Clifton Phifer. I’m confident that one of them will win the 1st ever BMOC “Cy Young.” lol

  2. Nick says:

    Also, is it me, or did Boston overpay for Adrian Gonzalez? As in, the whole thing from the trade to the contract.

    • Bryan says:

      Nick, this was intended to be an April-only feature, but I’m thinking I may not make it that far, as I can see Tulo and Haren holding their spots for the rest of the month and ARod and Halladay are pretty good bets to contend all year too. Nobody wants to read “same four guys still have good stats” posts every day. I’ve got a replacement project (get it, replacement?) in the works, but I need to do soem research first.

      As for Gonzalez, I don’t think the Sox overpaid at all. I’ll put it in Philly terms for you. Gonzalez was worth 3.8, 6.5, and 5.3 WAR the past three seasons, and will be 29 when his deal starts and 36 when it’s over. We can expect something like 5, 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, and 3 WAR the next seven years, a total of 29. At $154MM, that’s $5.3 million per win. Ryan Howard was worth 3.1, 4.8, and 2.0 wins the last three seasons and will be 34-38 during his deal. Aging them the same way, we get something like 3, 3, 2, 2, and 2 wins, a total of 12. At $125MM, that’s $10.4 million per win. I think Howard can and will be a 4-win player again, but I’m expecting Gonzalez to start dropping off at age 31, and Howard will be older than that when his contract *starts*. Also, Howard doesn’t walk as much, which means it will be harder to sustain his value as he loses bat speed in his mid-30s.

      I recognize that comparing any deal to the Ryan Howard contract is like comparing any space mission to the challenger, but they are two power-hitting first basemen who just signed $100MM+ deals. Howard aside, there’s always a lot of risk with long term, big-dollar contracts, particularly where the player just went to the tougher league, but I’m on board the bandwagon that thinks Gonzalez will blow up with a change of scenery (particularly one in which he can now see the fences without binoculars), so there’s a decent chance he’ll justify this deal.

      • Nick says:

        Ryan Howard’s contract is atrocious. I hate it, but unfortunately, the Phils felt the need to keep him around because he came up through their system and they want to sustain this unprecedented success. Remember, this franchise began in 1883 and didn’t win their first title until 1980, while the “other” MLB team in town won 5 titles between 1901 and 1954.
        So, back to Howard, his bat is already slowing down. There is no reason that he should have multiple 4K games. It’s aggravating watching the big money batter flail away at curveballs like Michael Jordan used to. Hell, even Pedro Serrano eventually figured that pitch out, Ryan Howard, no so much.

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